Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 11.390652 13.313906 15.415919 17.877674 20.675181 23.748714 27.374231
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.848284 10.314785 13.285667 17.099410 21.833971 27.485016 34.703369
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.703548 8.319287 11.749509 16.511591 22.874987 30.999529 42.056757
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.498188 7.189685 10.988813 16.624837 24.630331 35.427722 50.887798
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.541582 6.163947 10.124500 16.362271 25.714988 38.947116 58.738219
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.079625 5.768094 10.069187 17.191419 28.357451 44.781450 70.223545
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.616121 5.261170 9.732976 17.496842 30.185455 49.529409 80.468466
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.203562 4.749664 9.289560 17.534554 31.545790 53.628275 90.002013
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.871064 4.311813 8.890602 17.566183 32.854184 57.697956 99.734142
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.761959 4.287267 9.222538 18.894476 36.432893 65.623525 116.054511
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.610169 4.141954 9.299431 19.754896 39.261111 72.502074 131.115809
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.460242 3.968908 9.291622 20.442862 41.824741 79.093023 146.095776
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.238277 3.592876 8.833536 20.240780 42.814250 83.186284 157.386030
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.004254 3.132032 8.122028 19.441293 42.607925 85.186733 165.276776
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.823027 2.757633 7.533440 18.808898 42.643233 87.600082 174.033392
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.717600 2.560893 7.318918 18.945384 44.206799 92.910893 188.284487
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.605713 2.313809 6.937890 18.654739 44.855332 96.532593 199.665920
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.566611 2.278769 7.082131 19.585346 48.142166 105.411184 221.291439
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.506610 2.159472 6.985342 19.928024 50.185537 111.980464 238.913509
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.442993 2.008884 6.777210 19.970475 51.567160 117.318158 254.474648
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.387728 1.870549 6.577775 20.005979 52.928847 122.692136 270.391630
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.382272 1.918852 6.927391 21.492906 57.732938 135.397469 301.345934
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.361039 1.899363 7.071684 22.455269 61.389316 145.923909 328.478929